✦ Empirical-Bayes model · takers · 48 nations

Find the net.
Predict the shootout.

Shrinkage-modelled penalty conversion for every likely World Cup 2026 taker.

◎ Goal-mouth conversion · 6 zones

High conversion Mid Lower · dot = a recorded penalty (green scored / red saved-or-missed)

Zone rates from StatsBomb shot-placement data. Keepers dive low, so high corners convert best — the model reflects where, your eye reflects why.

◍ Taker profile

— scoring probability
Career record (best source)
National-team penalties
Raw vs shrunken
Position · intl goals

⚡ Shootout simulator · Monte Carlo (10,000 runs)

VS

↑ Top takers · shrunken probability

⚑ Team shootout strength · expected makes /5

Model: Empirical-Bayes Beta-Binomial shrinkage · prior · baseline
Data: FBref career penalties (in-game) + StatsBomb (incl. shootouts), nationality-verified · Built for github.io · Sanity-backed